NFL Week 10 betting notes

The Buffalo Bills look to bounce back from their loss as an 10.5-point favorite last week against the New York Jets. It was the second double-digit upset this NFL season. Teams coming off a loss as a double-digit favorite tend to bounce back, covering over 62% the following week in the past 20 seasons.

That win pushed the Jets over their win total of 5.5. The Jets are the first team to clinch their win total over. Two other teams clinched pushes last week, with the Seattle Seahawks clinching at least a push on over six wins, and the Green Bay Packers clinching at least a push on under 11 wins.

Green Bay is currently a five-point underdog, which is the largest underdog role for the Packers at Lambeau Field in any Aaron Rodgers start. Rodgers is 5-1 ATS in his career as an underdog, though the Dallas Cowboys are 5-0 ATS as road favorites over the last two seasons.

This week, five more teams have win totals at stake, including the Seahawks and Packers. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers can go under 11.5 wins with a loss, while the New York Giants (seven) and Atlanta Falcons (five) can clinch pushes on their overs with wins this week.

Season notes

  • Unders: 9-4 last week (79-55-2 this season); Highest over/under pct through Week 9 since 1991

  • Underdogs: 7-4-2 ATS this week (73-55-5 ATS this season)

  • Best ATS teams: Dallas, Tennessee, and New York (N), all 6-2 ATS

  • Worst ATS team: Tampa Bay (2-6-1 ATS)

  • Best over team: Cleveland (5-2-1)

  • Best under team: Indianapolis (8-1)


Atlanta Falcons (-3) at Carolina Panthers, Thursday at 8:15 ET

  • Atlanta can push on its season win total (five) with a win.

  • Atlanta is 0-3 ATS in its past three games after starting the season 6-0 ATS.

  • Atlanta is 4-1 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

  • Carolina is 8-18 ATS since the start of last season (3-6 ATS this season).

  • Carolina is 3-9 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3 since the start of last season.

  • Atlanta is 4-7 ATS as a favorite under Arthur Smith, but it is 2-0 ATS as a road favorite under Smith. Over the past five seasons, Atlanta is 10-19 ATS as a favorite.

  • Unders in division games are 29-13-1 this season.

  • Prime-time unders are 17-10-1 this season and 65-45-2 over the past four seasons. Three straight Thursday Night Football games have gone over the total after five of the first six went under.


Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5), Sunday at 9:30 AM ET (Munich)

  • Tampa Bay can clinch the under on its season win total (11.5) with a loss. Seattle can clinch the over on its season win total (6) with a win.

  • Tampa Bay is the fifth team in the Super Bowl era to have a losing record through nine games despite being favored in every game. With a loss, Tampa Bay would join 2016 Carolina as the only teams in the Super Bowl era with losing records through ten games despite being favored in each game.

  • Tampa Bay is 0-6-1 ATS in its past seven games.

  • Tampa Bay is 0-4-1 ATS at home this season.

  • Tampa Bay games are 7-2 to the under, including 6-0 in conference games.

  • Seattle has covered four straight games for the first time since 2020. The last time it covered five straight games was in 2015.

  • Seattle is 48-28-2 ATS as an underdog under Pete Carroll (.632). Seattle is 5-2 outright and ATS as an underdog this season, tied with both New York teams for the most in the league.


  • Kansas City is 0-4 ATS at home this season. Patrick Mahomes is 15-19 ATS in his career at home, including 3-8 ATS in his last 11 home games.

  • Kansas City is 0-5 ATS in conference games this season (0-7 ATS in last seven regular-season conference games).

  • Jacksonville is 1-5 ATS in its past six games.

  • Trevor Lawrence is 8-18 ATS in his career as a starter and 3-9 ATS on the road.


Houston Texans at New York Giants (-6.5), Sunday at 1 ET

  • New York has only been a six-point favorite once in the last four seasons (Week 12 of 2020: 6.5-point favorites at Cincinnati). If it closes seven, it will be New York’s largest favorite role since Week 17 of 2018 (-7.5 vs Dallas – lost outright). Daniel Jones is 3-6 ATS in his career as a favorite.

  • New York is 4-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.

  • New York can push over its win total (seven) with a win.

  • Houston is 4-1 ATS this season as an underdog of at least six points.

  • This would be just the sixth time in the Super Bowl era where a team with at least a .700 win percentage is a home favorite of less than a touchdown against a team with a winning percentage below .200 in November or later. The first five went 1-4 ATS.

  • New York is 6-2 ATS, tied for the best mark in the league.


  • Mike Tomlin is 14-4-2 ATS as a home underdog (13-7 outright), including 7-0-2 ATS over the past five seasons (7-2 outright).

  • Pittsburgh is 22-10-2 ATS as an underdog over the past five seasons.

  • New Orleans is 0-3 ATS on the road this season, and it is 1-5 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.


  • Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its past five games.

  • Dan Campbell is 2-6 ATS as Detroit coach when he is not at least a four-point underdog.

  • Detroit has covered six straight division games, all as an underdog.

  • Chicago has gone over the total in three straight games and four of its past five.

  • If the total closes at 48 or higher, it would be Chicago’s highest in any game since 2020.

  • Unders in division games are 29-13-1 this season.


  • Cleveland games are 5-2-1 to the over, the highest over percentage in the league. All four Miami home games this season have gone under the total.

  • Cleveland is 5-1 ATS in its last six games as an underdog, including 3-1 ATS this season.

  • Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.

  • Miami is 11-4-1 ATS as home favorite since 2017.

  • Tua Tagovailoa is 16-11-1 ATS in his career.


Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills (-5.5), Sunday at 1 ET

  • Buffalo games are 7-1 to the under this season with six straight unders.

  • Buffalo lost last week as a 10.5-point favorite. Teams coming off a loss as a double-digit favorite are 46-28-2 ATS in the following game over the past 20 seasons.

  • Last season, Buffalo was 1-3 outright and ATS as a home favorite of seven points or less.

  • Minnesota is 0-4 ATS in their last four games as an underdog. This is their second game as an underdog this season.


  • Tennessee has covered six straight games, the longest active streak in the league, and Tennessee’s longest streak since 2008 (8 straight). Tennessee is 6-2 ATS, tied for the best mark in the league

  • Denver games are 7-1 to the under this season with four straight unders. Tennessee games are 6-2 to the under with five straight unders

  • Tennessee is 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season.


  • Indianapolis games are 8-1 to the under, the highest under percentage in the league. Thirteen of their past 14 games have gone under dating back to last season and their previous eight road games have gone under.

  • Overs are 14-5-1 at Allegiant Stadium since it opened in 2020.

  • Indianapolis is 0-3 ATS in its past three games, including 0-2 ATS in two Sam Ehlinger starts.

  • Las Vegas is 3-13 ATS in its past 16 games as a favorite, including 2-4 outright and ATS this season.

  • Josh McDaniels is 6-9 outright and ATS in his career as a favorite (including his time in Denver), and he is 1-3 outright and ATS when favored by at least six points.


  • Los Angeles is 11-1 outright and ATS against Arizona including playoffs under Sean McVay, including 7-1 outright and ATS against Kliff Kingsbury.

  • Arizona is 8-1 outright and ATS as a road underdog since the start of last season. Arizona is 10-3 ATS on the road and 9-3 ATS as an underdog in that span.

  • Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS at home this season.

  • Los Angeles has gone under the total in five of its past six games. Arizona has gone over the total in three straight games.

  • Arizona is 0-3 ATS this season against division opponents (0-5 ATS past five games dating back to last season).

  • Unders in division games are 29-13-1 this season.


Dallas Cowboys (-5) at Green Bay Packers, Sunday at 4:25 ET

  • Aaron Rodgers is 5-1-1 ATS in his career as a home underdog including playoffs (4-2-1 outright). He is 5-1 ATS and 4-1-1 outright as a regular-season home underdog. He has never been more than a three-point home underdog in his career.

  • Green Bay has only been a home underdog of at least five points twice in the last 15 seasons since Aaron Rodgers made his starting debut. They lost 16-0 as 8.5-point underdogs in 2017 against Minnesota, and it upset Detroit in 2011 as 6.5-point home underdogs.

  • Green Bay can clinch the under on its season win total (11) with a loss.

  • Dallas is 13-3 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, including 5-0 ATS as a road favorite (all last season). Dallas is 3-0 ATS as a favorite this season, all at home.

  • Green Bay is 11-3 ATS as an underdog under Matt LaFleur (6-1 ATS since start of last season).

  • Dallas is 6-2 ATS, tied for the best mark in the league.


  • San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in it’s past five games as a home favorite, including 2-0 ATS this season. Kyle Shanahan is 8-16-2 ATS overall as a home favorite.

  • The under is 8-1 in San Francisco’s past nine games as a favorite.

  • Los Angeles has only been at least a five-point underdog once under Brandon Staley. Staley’s largest underdog role is +7 at Kansas City in Week 3 last season. Los Angeles won that game outright.

  • Los Angeles is 4-0 ATS on the road this season.

  • Sunday Night Football unders are 7-2 this season and 36-23-2 over the last four seasons. Prime-time unders are 17-10-1 this season and 65-45-2 over the last four seasons.


  • Philadelphia is 4-0 ATS at home this season.

  • Three straight Philadelphia games have gone over the total. Six of Washington’s past seven games have gone under the total. Unders are 4-0 when Washington plays teams with winning records this season.

  • This is the first time Philadelphia has been a double-digit favorite in three straight games in the Super Bowl era.

  • Since 2007, double-digit favorites are 9-21 ATS on Monday Night Football, though they are 3-1 ATS since the start of last season.

  • Unders in division games are 29-13-1 this season.

  • Prime-time unders are 17-10-1 this season and 65-45-2 over the past four seasons.

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