NFL Week 9 betting notes

The Buffalo Bills, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs have opened up a gap between themselves and the rest of the NFL in the betting market. The top three betting favorites are -150 to win the Super Bowl entering this week at Caesars Sportsbook, while the other 29 teams are +125. All three of those teams are double-digit favorites this week.

The Chiefs are the largest favorite in the Super Bowl era against a team on at least a five-game winning streak. The Bills are the second team in the last 40 seasons to be at least 12-point road favorites against a team with a winning record, joining the 2007 Patriots, which did it twice. The Eagles are the largest road favorites in the history of Thursday Night Football (since 2006).

However, the Eagles and Bills could both be on upset alert if recent trends hold. Over the past two seasons, double-digit road favorites are just 9-7 straight up, and 3-5 straight up when they are favored by at least 12 points. Double-digit home underdogs are up 28 units on the money line since the start of last season.

Season report:

  • Best ATS teams: Atlanta, Dallas and the New York Giants (6-2)

  • Worst ATS teams: Tampa Bay and Jacksonville (both 2-6)

  • Road teams: 64-56-3 ATS (.533)

  • Underdogs: 66-51-3 ATS (.564); went 7-7 each of past three weeks

  • Unders: 70-51-2 (.579); went 7-7 each of past two weeks


Philadelphia Eagles (-14) at Houston Texans, Thursday at 8:15 ET

  • This is the fourth time in the Super Bowl era the Eagles have been double-digit road favorites. They lost two of the previous three times outright (0-3 ATS).

  • Philadelphia is the largest road favorite ever in a Thursday Night Football game (since 2006).

  • Double-digit home underdogs are 7-9 outright and 11-5 ATS over the last two seasons. Betting double-digit home underdogs on the money line would have netted 28 units over the last two seasons, including Carolina winning as a +550 underdog in Week 7 against Tampa Bay this season. Home underdogs of at least 12 points are 5-3 outright (+26.25 units) over the last two seasons (7-1 ATS).

  • Double-digit home underdogs are 13-5 ATS in prime-time games over the last 20 seasons (5-1 ATS last 10 seasons).

  • Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.

  • Teams 4-0 or better are 3-10 ATS in road prime-time games over the last 10 seasons (2-8 ATS when team is 5-0 or better).

  • Prime-time unders are 15-9-1 this season and 103-75-4 over the last four seasons. Thursday night unders are 30-21 over the last four seasons (5-3 this season).


  • Derek Carr is 4-12-1 ATS as a road favorite, including 0-7 ATS in his past seven instances. Since 2017, Carr is 1-10-1 ATS as a road favorite.

  • Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its past five games. Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS, tied with Tampa Bay for the worst mark in the league.

  • All four Jacksonville home games have gone under the total (including London home game).


Buffalo Bills (-13) at New York Jets, Sunday at 1 ET

  • New York is the largest home underdog by any team with a winning record since 2007. Buffalo is the second team in the last 40 seasons to be at least a 12-point road favorite over a team with a winning record, joining 2007 New England, which did it twice.

  • Double-digit home underdogs are 7-9 outright and 11-5 ATS over the past two seasons. Betting double-digit home underdogs on the money line would have netted 28 units over the past two seasons, including Carolina winning as a +550 underdog in Week 7 against Tampa Bay this season. Home underdogs of at least 12 points are 5-3 outright (+26.25 units) over the past two seasons (7-1 ATS).

  • All four Buffalo road games have gone under the total. Unders are 6-1 in Buffalo games this season,

  • Josh Allen is 7-3-2 ATS as a double-digit favorite.

  • Unders in divisional games are 27-12-1 this season (.692).

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0:38

Tyler Fulghum lays out why he expects the under to hit when the Bills take on the Jets in Week 9.


  • The Chargers are 3-0 ATS on the road this season.

  • Atlanta is 3-0 ATS as a home underdog and 6-1 ATS overall as an underdog this season.

  • Chargers overs are 8-1 after a loss under Brandon Staley with eight straight overs.

  • Atlanta is 7-2 ATS under Arthur Smith when the line is between +3 and -3.


  • Justin Fields is 1-5 ATS as a home underdog and 5-11 ATS as an underdog in his career.

  • Miami is 4-1 ATS when Tua Tagovailoa starts and finishes the game, compared to 0-3 ATS when he does not. Tagovailoa is 16-10-1 ATS in his career (including games he left early).

  • Miami has only been favored by at least 4.5 points on the road once in the past five seasons (2020 at New York Jets – won by 17 as 7.5-point favorites).


  • Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in its past four games as a favorite with three straight outright losses.

  • Green Bay is 11-2 ATS after a loss under Matt LaFleur (2-2 ATS this season).

  • Detroit is 0-4 ATS in its past four games.

  • Detroit is 2-6 ATS when it is NOT at least a four-point underdog under Dan Campbell (12-4 ATS when getting at least four points).

  • Detroit is 8-2 ATS against Green Bay since 2017.

  • Detroit is 7-3 ATS as a home underdog under Dan Campbell.

  • All four Detroit home games have gone over the total this season.

  • Unders in division games are 27-12-1 this season (.692).


  • Washington has won and covered three straight games, including back-to-back wins as an underdog with Taylor Heinicke. Heinicke is 8-2 ATS in his past 10 starts.

  • Washington is 0-3 ATS against teams with winning records.

  • Minnesota is the second team in the last 20 seasons to be 6-1 or better outright through seven games while having a losing record against the spread (3-4), joining 2021 Tampa Bay.

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0:32

Joe Fortenbaugh explains why he is taking the Commanders plus the points against the Vikings on Sunday.


  • Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its past six games (did not cover on Monday).

  • Carolina has covered back-to-back games after going 3-17 ATS in its previous 20 games.

  • P.J. Walker is 4-1 ATS and 3-2 SU in his career as a starter, all as an underdog. He is +7.40 units on the money line in five career starts.

  • Joe Burrow is 1-4 ATS and 2-3 outright as at least a seven-point favorite.


  • Indianapolis games are 7-1 to the under this season, tied with Denver for the highest under percentage in the NFL. Seven straight Indianapolis road games have gone under the total including all four this season.

  • New England is 4-1 ATS in its past five games.

  • Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS as a road underdog since the start of past season (6-1 ATS, 5-2 outright in past seven).

  • Over the last 10 seasons, Bill Belichick is 2-5 ATS against quarterbacks making their first or second career start. Belichick is 1-4 ATS in his New England career at home against quarterbacks in one of their first two starts.

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0:33

Tyler Fulghum is taking the under between the Colts and the Patriots on Sunday.


  • Seattle has covered three straight games and four of its past five.

  • Seattle is 47-28-2 ATS as an underdog under Pete Carroll (.627). Seattle is 4-2 outright and ATS as an underdog this season.

  • Kliff Kingsbury is 5-11 ATS and 7-9 outright as a home favorite.

  • Arizona is 0-5 outright and ATS in its past five games against division opponents including playoffs (0-2 this season).

  • Unders in division games are 27-12-1 this season (.692).


  • The average total in the previous five matchups between Tom Brady and Matthew Stafford was 52.3, including playoffs. Their Week 3 meeting last season was 55, while their playoff meeting was 48, with both games going over.

  • Tampa Bay is 0-6 ATS in its past six games, the longest single-season ATS losing streak of Tom Brady’s career. Tampa Bay has been favored in all of those games.

  • Tampa Bay is 0-4 ATS at home this season, all as a favorite.

  • Tampa Bay is 2-6 ATS, tied with Jacksonville for the worst mark in the league.

  • The Rams are 9-1 ATS in the past 10 meetings.


Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5), Sunday at 8:20 ET

  • Tennessee is the third team in the Super Bowl era (since 1966) to be a double-digit underdog despite entering a game on at least a five-game winning streak. The current line of 12.5 would be the largest spread for a team on a five-game winning streak in the Super Bowl era.

  • Andy Reid is 15-8 ATS in his career off a bye (5-4 with Kansas City). He is 2-3 ATS as a double-digit favorite off a bye.

  • Mike Vrabel is 14-4 ATS and 13-5 outright as an underdog of at least four points, including playoffs. He is 2-1 outright and ATS as a double-digit underdog, though he has never been bigger than a 10-point underdog. The one loss came earlier this season at Buffalo (+10).

  • Tennessee is 5-0 outright and ATS in its past five games. The past four Tennessee games have gone under the total.

  • Kansas City is 0-3 ATS at home this season.

  • Double-digit favorites are 8-3-1 ATS in prime-time games since the start of last season.

  • Prime-time unders are 15-9-1 this season and 103-75-4 over the past four seasons.


  • Baltimore is 5-12 ATS as a favorite since the start of last season, including 0-3 ATS in its past three games.

  • Lamar Jackson is 18-8-2 ATS in his career on the road. He is also 12-2-2 ATS when the line is between +3 and -3.

  • Four of the past five Baltimore games went under the total. Four of the past five New Orleans games went over the total.

  • Home underdogs are 8-2 ATS and 7-3 outright on “Monday Night Football” over the past two seasons (14-6 ATS last three seasons and 2-0 ATS this season).

  • Prime-time unders are 15-9-1 this season and 103-75-4 over the past four seasons.

play

0:38

Doug Kezirian explains why he’s laying points on the Ravens when they play the Saints on Monday Night Football.

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